Two SF condos sold for $300K over asking Thursday. Two others didn't.

The split that defined Thursday

582 Douglass Street listed at $995,000 and recorded as sold for $1,300,000 — $305,000 over asking, at $1,258 per square foot on 1,033 square feet. A mile away in the same city, on the same day, 631 Folsom Street #15E listed at $950,000 and recorded as sold for $900,000, a $50,000 haircut. Same asset class, same recording date, opposite outcomes.

That gap is the story of September 18.

The four recorded sales

Two properties cleared their ask by a combined $506,000. Two came in below by a combined $65,000. The market did not move uniformly in any direction Thursday.

Cross-sectional read

The market context covers 138 sales over the last 180 days, with a median price of $1,412,500 and a median of $1,200 per square foot on a median size of 1,196 square feet.

1275 Indiana Street #106 recorded at $1,550,000 — 9.7% above the 180-day median. Its $1,288 per square foot lands 7.3% above the $1,200 market median per foot. At 1,203 square feet it sits almost exactly at the market's median size of 1,196 square feet, so this is not a size story; the premium reflects something specific to the property or the negotiation.

582 Douglass Street recorded at $1,300,000 — 8% below the 180-day median price, but its $1,258 per square foot is 4.8% above the market median. The unit is 1,033 square feet, below the 1,196-square-foot median. Buyers paid a above-median rate per foot for a below-median-sized unit, bidding $305,000 over list to do it. That is not a story about a distressed seller pricing conservatively; that is competitive demand for a specific address.

631 Folsom Street #15E and 325 Berry Street #306 both recorded below their list prices. At $993 and $998 per square foot respectively, both sit below the 180-day median of $1,200 — by 17.3% and 16.8%. Both are also below the 1,196-square-foot market median in size. The SoMa and Mission Bay tower inventory has been absorbing price reductions for months; these two are consistent with that pattern, not outliers within it.

The two properties that sold over ask averaged $1,273 per square foot. The two that sold under averaged $996 per square foot. That $277-per-foot spread on the same recording day, in the same city, in the same asset class, is the clearest signal the day produced.

Recent comparable sales

All six appeared on the MLS feed on their respective dates via status change. The table shows a market range from $740 to $2,125 per square foot — a spread wide enough to make "the SF condo market" a nearly meaningless phrase without a neighborhood and a size attached to it.

What hit the MLS

Thirteen new condos appeared on the MLS feed on September 18, ranging from $789,000 at 355 1st Street #S1801 to $5,950,000 at 690 Market Street #2402. The day's new inventory skews downtown and mid-market. No properties went pending.

188 Minna Street #34D appeared on the MLS feed on September 18 as sold, at $2,625,000. That is 85.8% above the 180-day median sale price of $1,412,500.

What this means

For a buyer: Thursday's data argues for granularity over generalizations. The same recording date produced a $1,258-per-foot result and a $993-per-foot result. Knowing which micromarket you're in matters more than tracking citywide medians.

For an owner: If your unit resembles 1275 Indiana or 582 Douglass — below the 1,200-square-foot median, in a neighborhood with genuine walk-up demand — the over-ask outcomes Thursday suggest pricing aggressively is still viable. If your unit resembles the SoMa towers, Thursday's closings suggest the market will correct your list price for you.

For someone undecided: Zero properties went pending Thursday. Thirteen came on. Supply added faster than demand absorbed it, at least for one day — which, in a market already running a 180-day window of 138 sales, is not a reversal but is not nothing either.

Tim McMullen · Tim McMullen, Broker · CA DRE #02016832
[email protected] · (415) 691-9272