Arden is selling within 1 percent of its 2019 peak, and seven of eleven listings this year went into contract inside two weeks

Arden is the first building in this series to have closed the gap to its own pre-pandemic peak. Eleven condominiums closed across 708 and 718 Long Bridge Street between January 1 and October 15, at a median of $1,383 a square foot. The building's best year on record was 2019, at $1,400. The difference is 1.2 percent.

The count is a little lower than last year — 11 against 13 in the same window, $21.8 million against $25.6 million — and the per-foot figure is flat, $1,383 against $1,380. What moved is how fast the eleven sold: seven of the eleven listed sales went into contract inside two weeks, and four of them — #210, #212, #214 and #506 — went under contract in a week or less. Median days on market is 13.

The high sale is 718 Long Bridge #1303, a 1,958-square-foot three-bedroom, at $3,550,000 on June 10 after 13 days. Its prior sale was $2,700,000 in June 2023, so a three-year hold returned 31.5 percent before costs — the largest gain on a 2023 purchase anywhere in this series so far. Below it, #816 closed at $2,128,000 and #805 at $2,090,000.

Seven paired resales are on record and six are up. 708 Long Bridge #908, bought in November 2015 for $1,289,000, sold on September 25 for $1,650,000, up 28 percent. #611, bought in December 2020 for $1,400,888, sold for $1,777,000, up 26.8 percent. The one decline is 718 Long Bridge #506, bought in December 2021 for $1,763,000 and sold in January for $1,625,000, down 7.8 percent. Two-bedrooms, which are ten of the eleven sales, held at a median of $1,793,500 against $1,792,000 last year.

2026 so far, against the same window in 2025

Closings at Arden between January 1 and October 15, 2026, set against January 1 to October 15, 2025. Days on market is median days from listing to contract on MLS-listed sales; "under 15 days" counts how many of those went into contract inside two weeks.

Year by year

Every recorded closing at Arden since February 2015, by calendar year. 2026 runs through October 15, 2026. Days on market is available for MLS-listed sales from 2020 onward.

The building's highest median price per square foot in any year with five or more closings was $1,400 in 2019 (9 closings). 2026 year to date stands at $1,383.

By bedroom count, 2025 against 2026

Every closing in 2026

All 11 closings through October 15, 2026, highest price first. Square footage and days on market are as recorded on the MLS; county-recorded transfers that never listed show no days.

Paired resales

Units that closed in 2026 and had a prior recorded sale in the same building. The change is gross, before any improvements, fees or carrying costs.

6 of these resold above the prior price, 1 below.

Long Bridge Street and the Exchange

Arden sits on Long Bridge Street at the south end of Mission Bay. OpenAI's sublease of roughly 280,000 square feet at the Exchange, 1800 Owens Street, is two blocks west; 550 Terry Francois and the Third Street buildings put the company past a million square feet in the neighborhood (The Real Deal; SF Standard). CBRE recorded Mission Bay office asking rents near $131 a foot in Q3 2026, an all-time high and up 49.8 percent in a year, with neighborhood vacancy at 13.2 percent at the start of 2026 against 41.2 percent two years earlier (SF Examiner).

The timetable that every South of Market building now sits inside is the public-offering calendar. Anthropic filed a confidential draft registration with the SEC on June 1, 2026, a week after a funding round that set its valuation at $965 billion (TechCrunch). As of this week the Standard reports the Anthropic listing has been pushed to November, after the midterms, that OpenAI's has moved to 2027, and that Anthropic is weighing a lockup longer than the usual six months (SF Standard). The same piece carries a Redfin estimate that current and former OpenAI and Anthropic employees could in theory buy close to a third of the metro area's homes with their proceeds, and the counter-argument from UC Berkeley's Enrico Moretti and the Bay Area Council's Jeff Bellisario that the money is concentrated in fewer hands than past booms and that these firms create fewer jobs per dollar because so much goes to data centers rather than headcount. The record in this report ends on October 15. None of it reflects a single share that has been sold.

Two citywide facts frame every building figure here. First, the office recovery is lopsided: CBRE put Q3 2026 vacancy at 27.7 percent citywide, down 6.6 points in a year, but Avison Young splits that into roughly 12 percent for Class A and north of 31 percent for Class B, and a Presidio Bay executive told Bisnow the headline number is misleading for that reason (Bisnow). Second, the condo market is still digging out: the Chronicle's May analysis found that only eight Bay Area ZIP codes showed inflation-adjusted condo gains over the year, all of them in San Francisco, and that Noe Valley's typical condo remained close to $400,000 below its 2019 level in real terms (SF Chronicle).

How this was counted

Two records feed this review. The MLS layer is one row per listing and carries days on market and square footage. The county layer reaches back further and catches transfers that never listed, but records the same closing once per data source, so the two were merged on unit, date and price and each closing kept once. Below-market-rate units and transfers under $300,000 are listed but excluded from every median. "Same window" means January 1 to October 15 of each year. Nothing here is a valuation of any unit, and nothing here is advice.

Tim McMullen · CA DRE #02016832
[email protected] · (415) 691-9272