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The Potrero at 451 Kansas: five closings this year at $1,163 a foot with a median 13 days to contract, above the Whole Foods and a short walk from the Design District's AI leases
Every 2026 closing at The Potrero, the 2007 two-building complex at 451 Kansas in Showplace Square, against the record since 2007
Five closings at 451 Kansas Street through October 15, against seven in the 2025 window; $5.2 million of volume against $6.2 million. Median sale $920,000; median $1,163 a square foot, up 8 percent on $1,076 and 10 percent under the building's 2015 high. Median 13 days to contract against 32; three of five inside two weeks. #282, bought new in 2007 for $680,000, resold for $1,200,000.
The Potrero sold fewer condominiums this year and sold them faster and higher. Five closed at 451 Kansas Street between January 1 and October 15, 2026, against seven in the same window of 2025; $5,151,000 of volume against $6,169,375. The median sale is $920,000 and the median price per square foot is $1,163, against $1,076 last year, an 8 percent gain, and 10 percent under the building's high of $1,292 in 2015.
The median listed sale went into contract in 13 days against 32, and three of five went inside two weeks against one of seven. The high sale is #456, a 970-square-foot two-bedroom at $1,351,000 on September 10 after six days, which is $1,393 a foot, the highest of the year. Three one-bedrooms sold at a median of $920,000 and $1,136 a foot; the two two-bedrooms at $1,275,500 and $1,340. The low is #362, 686 square feet at $760,000, in 13 days.
Two paired resales are on record. #282, bought new in August 2007 for $680,000, sold on September 29 for $1,200,000, up 76.5 percent in 19 years. #445, bought in March 2022 for $955,000, sold on August 21 for $920,000, down 3.7 percent.
The complex is two buildings, north and south, around a landscaped mews, with the Whole Foods under the north building; sales opened in February 2007 with one-bedrooms from $545,880 and two-bedrooms from $715,880, and by that September the north building was about 85 percent sold and the south about 35 (SocketSite; SocketSite). It has 165 condominiums, 436 to 1,443 square feet, 20 of them below-market-rate; four transfers under $300,000 are left out of every median above (RubyHome).
2026 so far, against the same window in 2025
Closings at 451 Kansas St between January 1 and October 15, 2026, set against January 1 to October 15, 2025. Days on market is median days from listing to contract on MLS-listed sales; "under 15 days" counts how many of those went into contract inside two weeks.
| Measure | 2025 (same window) | 2026 year to date |
|---|---|---|
| Closings | 7 | 5 |
| Dollar volume | $6,169,375 | $5,151,000 |
| Median sale price | $902,000 | $920,000 |
| Median $/sq ft | $1,076 | $1,163 |
| Median days on market | 32 | 13 |
| Under 15 days (of MLS sales) | 1 of 7 | 3 of 5 |
Year by year
Every recorded closing at 451 Kansas St since August 2007, by calendar year. 2026 runs through October 15, 2026. Days on market is available for MLS-listed sales from 2020 onward.
| Year | Closings | Median price | Median $/sq ft | Median days | High sale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 6 | $977,500 | $1,220 | — | $1,185,000 |
| 2017 | 10 | $882,500 | $1,152 | — | $1,135,000 |
| 2018 | 6 | $893,236 | $1,288 | — | $1,200,000 |
| 2019 | 4 | $942,500 | $1,236 | — | $1,200,000 |
| 2020 | 5 | $880,000 | $1,240 | 8 | $1,249,000 |
| 2021 | 20 | $887,500 | $1,221 | 20 | $1,325,000 |
| 2022 | 8 | $811,500 | $1,102 | 54 | $1,025,000 |
| 2023 | 4 | $857,500 | $1,067 | 11 | $1,060,000 |
| 2024 | 6 | $1,055,000 | $1,040 | 8 | $1,125,000 |
| 2025 | 8 | $913,500 | $1,075 | 32 | $1,320,000 |
| 2026 | 5 | $920,000 | $1,163 | 13 | $1,351,000 |
The building's highest median price per square foot in any year with five or more closings was $1,292 in 2015 (6 closings). 2026 year to date stands at $1,163.
By bedroom count, 2025 against 2026
| Beds | 2025 closings | 2025 median | 2025 $/sq ft | 2026 closings | 2026 median | 2026 $/sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 bed | 3 | $726,375 | $1,078 | 3 | $920,000 | $1,136 |
| 2 bed | 4 | $990,000 | $1,061 | 2 | $1,275,500 | $1,340 |
| 3 bed | 1 | $1,320,000 | $834 | 0 | — | — |
Every closing in 2026
All 5 closings through October 15, 2026, highest price first. Square footage and days on market are as recorded on the MLS; county-recorded transfers that never listed show no days.
| Unit | Bd | Sq ft | Sold | $/sq ft | Days | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 451 Kansas Street, #456 | 2 | 970 | $1,351,000 | $1,393 | 6 | Sep 10 |
| 451 Kansas Street, #282 | 2 | 932 | $1,200,000 | $1,288 | 20 | Sep 29 |
| 451 Kansas Street, #445 | 1 | 810 | $920,000 | $1,136 | 12 | Aug 21 |
| 451 Kansas Street, #509 | 1 | 791 | $920,000 | $1,163 | 18 | Sep 15 |
| 451 Kansas Street, #362 | 1 | 686 | $760,000 | $1,108 | 13 | May 13 |
Paired resales
Units that closed in 2026 and had a prior recorded sale in the same building. The change is gross, before any improvements, fees or carrying costs.
| Unit | Prior sale | Prior price | 2026 sale | 2026 price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 451 Kansas Street, #445 | Mar 2022 | $955,000 | Aug 2026 | $920,000 | -3.7% |
| 451 Kansas Street, #282 | Aug 2007 | $680,000 | Sep 2026 | $1,200,000 | +76.5% |
1 of these resold above the prior price, 1 below.
Kansas Street, Showplace Square
The building sits in the showroom district between Potrero Hill and the 101 ramps, a half block from the freeway overpass. One block north on the 300 block, El Dorado Inc. built a 153,000-square-foot production-distribution-repair building for GROUP i on the site of the old Kleinen Square showroom, demolished in November 2021 (SocketSite). Alta Potrero Hill, Wood Partners' 172-unit rental building at 1301 16th Street, is a block away (Multi-Housing News).
The Design District north of here is where the AI office leases have landed on this side of the freeway. Scale AI subleased about 180,000 square feet at 650 Townsend in May 2024, and on June 30, 2026 Amazon Robotics was reported to be in final talks for about 250,000 square feet in the same building, in a district that has also signed Together AI, Physical Intelligence, Abridge, Tools for Humanity and Eight Sleep (Bisnow; SFist). OpenAI's Mission Bay buildings, 550 Terry Francois and 1800 Owens, are across the 280 ramps to the east (CompStak).
The timetable that every South of Market building now sits inside is the public-offering calendar. Anthropic filed a confidential draft registration with the SEC on June 1, 2026, a week after a funding round that set its valuation at $965 billion (TechCrunch). As of this week the Standard reports the Anthropic listing has been pushed to November, after the midterms, that OpenAI's has moved to 2027, and that Anthropic is weighing a lockup longer than the usual six months (SF Standard). The same piece carries a Redfin estimate that current and former OpenAI and Anthropic employees could in theory buy close to a third of the metro area's homes with their proceeds, and the counter-argument from UC Berkeley's Enrico Moretti and the Bay Area Council's Jeff Bellisario that the money is concentrated in fewer hands than past booms and that these firms create fewer jobs per dollar because so much goes to data centers rather than headcount. The record in this report ends on October 15. None of it reflects a single share that has been sold.
Two citywide facts frame every building figure here. First, the office recovery is lopsided: CBRE put Q3 2026 vacancy at 27.7 percent citywide, down 6.6 points in a year, but Avison Young splits that into roughly 12 percent for Class A and north of 31 percent for Class B, and a Presidio Bay executive told Bisnow the headline number is misleading for that reason (Bisnow). Second, the condo market is still digging out: the Chronicle's May analysis found that only eight Bay Area ZIP codes showed inflation-adjusted condo gains over the year, all of them in San Francisco, and that Noe Valley's typical condo remained close to $400,000 below its 2019 level in real terms (SF Chronicle).
How this was counted
Two records feed this review. The MLS layer is one row per listing and carries days on market and square footage. The county layer reaches back further and catches transfers that never listed, but records the same closing once per data source, so the two were merged on unit, date and price and each closing kept once. Below-market-rate units and transfers under $300,000 are listed but excluded from every median. "Same window" means January 1 to October 15 of each year. Nothing here is a valuation of any unit, and nothing here is advice.
Tim McMullen · CA DRE #02016832
[email protected] · (415) 691-9272
- https://therealdeal.com/san-francisco/2026/04/07/anthropic-signs-another-san-francisco-office-lease/
- https://therealdeal.com/san-francisco/2026/03/16/openai-inks-another-mission-bay-lease/
- https://sfstandard.com/2026/04/07/i-leaderboard-san-francisco-office/
- https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/the-city/sfs-high-office-vacancy-rate-drops-again-as-ai-fueled-recovery-shows-legs/article_14d60cc1-a6dc-4228-9a44-b5b8c4d36b8c.html
- https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/01/anthropic-files-to-go-public/
- https://sfstandard.com/pacific-standard-time/2026/10/14/pst-anthropic-openai-ipos-sf-wealth/
- https://www.bisnow.com/news/san-francisco/office/ai-surge-driving-sf-office-market-leasing-to-strong-totals-in-decades
- https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/bay-area-condo-values-still-120000717.html
- https://socketsite.com/archives/2007/02/the_potrero_451_kansas_sales_center_now_open.html
- https://socketsite.com/archives/2007/09/the_potrero_451_kansas_60_sold_and_closing_contracts.html
- https://www.rubyhome.com/san-francisco-ca/the-potrero/
- https://socketsite.com/archives/2018/01/big-plans-for-a-showplace-development-on-kansas-street.html
- https://www.multihousingnews.com/wood-partners-commences-potrero-hill-development/
- https://www.bisnow.com/news/san-francisco/office/ai-startup-sierra-doubles-space-in-soma-128112
- https://sfist.com/2026/06/30/amazon-robotics-expected-to-join-growing-tech-and-ai-hub-in-sfs-design-district/
- https://compstak.com/blog/q1-2026-office-lease-deals-the-comps-that-set-the-national-bar
- 451 Kansas St · Potrero Hill
Tim McMullen, CA DRE #02016832. Real estate services provided by Tim McMullen, Broker, CA DRE #02016832. Figures are from recorded sales; nothing here is an opinion of the value of any home.