950 Tennessee: four closings this year at $1,262 a foot, all four into contract inside two weeks, back within a dollar of the 2020 developer price

950 Tennessee has come all the way back to its opening price. Four condominiums closed between January 1 and October 15, 2026, against two in the same window of 2025; $5,641,888 of volume against $2,630,000. The median sale is $1,393,444 and the median price per square foot is $1,262, against $950 last year, a 33 percent gain, and one dollar under the $1,263 of 2020, when the developer closed 66 units. In between, the building slid to $1,111 in 2024 and $1,038 in 2025.

Every listing this year moved inside two weeks, with a median of eight days to contract. The high sale is #313, a 1,379-square-foot two-bedroom at $1,760,000 on August 20 after six days. #311, 1,073 square feet, closed at $1,436,888 on June 22 after four days. The low is #415, a 908-square-foot one-bedroom at $1,095,000 after twelve days. Three two-bedrooms sold at a median of $1,436,888 and $1,276 a foot.

One paired resale is on record, and it is the first developer sale to come back around: #311, bought new in September 2020 for $1,230,000, sold for $1,436,888, up 16.8 percent in six years.

Oryx Partners built the project with Handel Architects on the full block between Tennessee and Minnesota, on the site of the two-story Watermark Press printing plant, with a public mid-block passage between the two streets: about 100 condominiums on four floors, the south half in weathering steel under a sawtooth roof and the north half in white and charcoal panels around a courtyard (Archello; SocketSite; SocketSite).

2026 so far, against the same window in 2025

Closings at 950 Tennessee between January 1 and October 15, 2026, set against January 1 to October 15, 2025. Days on market is median days from listing to contract on MLS-listed sales; "under 15 days" counts how many of those went into contract inside two weeks.

Year by year

Every recorded closing at 950 Tennessee since September 2020, by calendar year. 2026 runs through October 15, 2026. Days on market is available for MLS-listed sales from 2020 onward.

The building's highest median price per square foot in any year with five or more closings was $1,263 in 2020 (66 closings). 2026 year to date stands at $1,262.

By bedroom count, 2025 against 2026

Every closing in 2026

All 4 closings through October 15, 2026, highest price first. Square footage and days on market are as recorded on the MLS; county-recorded transfers that never listed show no days.

Paired resales

Units that closed in 2026 and had a prior recorded sale in the same building. The change is gross, before any improvements, fees or carrying costs.

1 of these resold above the prior price, 0 below.

Tennessee and Minnesota, across from Esprit Park

Across Minnesota Street is Esprit Park, the two-acre park from 1982 whose first full renovation opened in February 2025 with an off-leash dog area and a dog-free lawn; across Tennessee is the former firehouse at 909 Tennessee (Local News Matters; SocketSite). Four blocks south, the Minnesota Grove pocket park opened in December 2025 as part of a $4 million repaving of Minnesota Street, and at Pier 70 the Bay Padel courts opened in Building 12 in June 2024 (SF Chronicle; Port of San Francisco).

The large project on this side of the city is the Potrero Power Station, between 22nd and 23rd on Illinois: about 2,000 homes, a 250-room hotel and a seven-acre waterfront park, with the first residents due in early 2026, a 300,000-square-foot UCSF clinical building opening its clinics in 2028, and 342 more units announced with JPMorgan backing in August 2026 (Nob Hill Gazette; SFist). The 20th Street T Third stop is three blocks west and the 22nd Street Caltrain station four blocks south (Wikipedia)). No AI office sits in Dogpatch itself; the nearest are OpenAI's Mission Bay buildings a mile north (Bisnow).

The timetable that every South of Market building now sits inside is the public-offering calendar. Anthropic filed a confidential draft registration with the SEC on June 1, 2026, a week after a funding round that set its valuation at $965 billion (TechCrunch). As of this week the Standard reports the Anthropic listing has been pushed to November, after the midterms, that OpenAI's has moved to 2027, and that Anthropic is weighing a lockup longer than the usual six months (SF Standard). The same piece carries a Redfin estimate that current and former OpenAI and Anthropic employees could in theory buy close to a third of the metro area's homes with their proceeds, and the counter-argument from UC Berkeley's Enrico Moretti and the Bay Area Council's Jeff Bellisario that the money is concentrated in fewer hands than past booms and that these firms create fewer jobs per dollar because so much goes to data centers rather than headcount. The record in this report ends on October 15. None of it reflects a single share that has been sold.

Two citywide facts frame every building figure here. First, the office recovery is lopsided: CBRE put Q3 2026 vacancy at 27.7 percent citywide, down 6.6 points in a year, but Avison Young splits that into roughly 12 percent for Class A and north of 31 percent for Class B, and a Presidio Bay executive told Bisnow the headline number is misleading for that reason (Bisnow). Second, the condo market is still digging out: the Chronicle's May analysis found that only eight Bay Area ZIP codes showed inflation-adjusted condo gains over the year, all of them in San Francisco, and that Noe Valley's typical condo remained close to $400,000 below its 2019 level in real terms (SF Chronicle).

How this was counted

Two records feed this review. The MLS layer is one row per listing and carries days on market and square footage. The county layer reaches back further and catches transfers that never listed, but records the same closing once per data source, so the two were merged on unit, date and price and each closing kept once. Below-market-rate units and transfers under $300,000 are listed but excluded from every median. "Same window" means January 1 to October 15 of each year. Nothing here is a valuation of any unit, and nothing here is advice.

Tim McMullen · CA DRE #02016832
[email protected] · (415) 691-9272