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Lumina sold 29 condos this year and half of them went into contract inside two weeks
Every 2026 closing at Lumina, 201 Folsom · 338 Main · 318 Main · 333 Beale, set against eleven years of record
Twenty-nine closings at 201 Folsom through October 15, against 22 in the same window of 2025. Median days on market fell from 25 to 12. Two $7 million closings on the 26th and 32nd floors, and a 22-unit paired-resale record that splits 12 gains to 10 losses.
The most-sold building in South Beach has had a faster year than a bigger one. Lumina closed 29 condominiums between January 1 and October 15, 2026, seven more than the same window of 2025, on $58.5 million of volume. The number that moved most is time: the median MLS-listed sale went into contract in 12 days this year, against 25 last year, and 14 of 27 listed sales went under contract inside two weeks, against 6 of 20.
Price followed, but less far. The year-to-date median sale is $1,780,000 (2025 same window: $1,625,500) and the median price per square foot is $1,339 (2025: $1,254). That $1,339 is still under the building's 2018 high of $1,403 a foot, so the recovery on a per-foot basis has closed most, not all, of the gap to the pre-pandemic peak.
The top of the building did the heavy lifting. Unit 26B at 338 Main closed at $7,000,000 on July 21 with zero days on market, and 32B closed at the same $7,000,000 on October 7 after 37 days. 32B's prior recorded sale was $6,895,000 in December 2015, so an eleven-year hold returned 1.5 percent gross. 26B's was $7,500,000 in the same month of 2015, a 6.7 percent gross decline. Those two sales are the full story of Lumina's top floors in one line: the price held, and it did not compound.
The paired-resale table is the most useful section in this review because Lumina has enough of it to mean something. Twenty-two units that closed in 2026 had a prior recorded sale here; 12 came back above the earlier price, 10 below. The spread runs from 338 Main #4E, up 21.4 percent on a 2015 purchase, to 338 Main #25C, down 17.4 percent on a 2015 purchase. Floor, exposure and finish separate them; the record does not say which.
2026 so far, against the same window in 2025
Closings at Lumina between January 1 and October 15, 2026, set against January 1 to October 15, 2025. Days on market is median days from listing to contract on MLS-listed sales; "under 15 days" counts how many of those went into contract inside two weeks.
| Measure | 2025 (same window) | 2026 year to date |
|---|---|---|
| Closings | 22 | 29 |
| Dollar volume | $47,851,200 | $58,481,500 |
| Median sale price | $1,625,500 | $1,780,000 |
| Median $/sq ft | $1,252 | $1,339 |
| Median days on market | 25 | 12 |
| Under 15 days (of MLS sales) | 6 of 20 | 14 of 27 |
Year by year
Every recorded closing at Lumina since February 2015, by calendar year. 2026 runs through October 15, 2026. Days on market is available for MLS-listed sales from 2020 onward.
| Year | Closings | Median price | Median $/sq ft | Median days | High sale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 177 | $1,680,000 | $1,387 | — | $6,750,000 |
| 2017 | 7 | $1,500,000 | $1,213 | — | $2,945,500 |
| 2018 | 24 | $1,672,500 | $1,403 | — | $4,832,000 |
| 2019 | 28 | $1,792,500 | $1,396 | — | $3,500,000 |
| 2020 | 29 | $1,650,000 | $1,298 | 65 | $4,200,000 |
| 2021 | 64 | $1,650,000 | $1,318 | 49 | $8,700,000 |
| 2022 | 23 | $1,567,000 | $1,364 | 48 | $2,700,000 |
| 2023 | 18 | $2,067,500 | $1,366 | 115 | $5,450,000 |
| 2024 | 35 | $1,775,000 | $1,299 | 33 | $6,300,000 |
| 2025 | 32 | $1,625,500 | $1,258 | 24 | $6,500,000 |
| 2026 | 29 | $1,780,000 | $1,339 | 12 | $7,000,000 |
The building's highest median price per square foot in any year with five or more closings was $1,403 in 2018 (24 closings). 2026 year to date stands at $1,339.
By bedroom count, 2025 against 2026
| Beds | 2025 closings | 2025 median | 2025 $/sq ft | 2026 closings | 2026 median | 2026 $/sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 bed | 13 | $1,030,000 | $1,048 | 10 | $1,106,500 | $1,133 |
| 2 bed | 14 | $1,725,000 | $1,305 | 15 | $1,888,000 | $1,391 |
| 3 bed | 5 | $6,500,000 | $1,711 | 4 | $4,825,000 | $2,004 |
Every closing in 2026
All 29 closings through October 15, 2026, highest price first. Square footage and days on market are as recorded on the MLS; county-recorded transfers that never listed show no days.
| Unit | Bd | Sq ft | Sold | $/sq ft | Days | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 338 Main Street, #26B | 3 | 2,690 | $7,000,000 | $2,602 | 0 | Jul 21 |
| 338 Main Street, #32B | 3 | 2,685 | $7,000,000 | $2,607 | 37 | Oct 07 |
| 338 Main Street, #25C | 2 | 1,403 | $2,725,000 | $1,942 | 0 | Apr 30 |
| 318 Main Street, #4F | 3 | 1,979 | $2,650,000 | $1,339 | 25 | May 21 |
| 201 Folsom Street, #27E | 2 | 1,366 | $2,295,000 | $1,680 | 0 | Jul 10 |
| 201 Folsom Street, #24A | 2 | 1,368 | $2,218,000 | $1,621 | 0 | Aug 17 |
| 201 Folsom Street, #22G | 2 | 1,401 | $2,068,000 | $1,476 | 4 | Mar 13 |
| 338 Main Street, #3G | 2 | 1,401 | $2,025,000 | $1,445 | 96 | Jul 28 |
| 201 Folsom Street, #3G | 3 | 1,401 | $1,968,000 | $1,405 | 12 | Jul 25 |
| 201 Folsom St #18e | 2 | 1,366 | $1,900,000 | $1,391 | — | Apr 09 |
| 338 Main Street, #18B | 2 | 1,178 | $1,900,000 | $1,613 | 12 | May 26 |
| 201 Folsom Street, #20E | 2 | 1,366 | $1,888,000 | $1,382 | 101 | Mar 04 |
| 338 Main Street, #16A | 2 | 1,379 | $1,870,000 | $1,356 | 1 | Apr 10 |
| 201 Folsom Street, #8C | 2 | 1,403 | $1,850,000 | $1,319 | 0 | Jul 22 |
| 201 Folsom Street, #21B | 2 | 1,189 | $1,780,000 | $1,497 | 36 | May 06 |
| 338 Main Street, #4E | 2 | 1,382 | $1,730,000 | $1,252 | 10 | Jun 18 |
| 338 Main Street, #5A | 2 | 1,379 | $1,700,000 | $1,233 | 17 | Aug 05 |
| 338 Main Street, #8E | 2 | 1,382 | $1,656,500 | $1,199 | 0 | Jul 10 |
| 201 Folsom Street #4F | 2 | 1,191 | $1,650,000 | $1,385 | 19 | Sep 30 |
| 333 Beale Street #7D | 1 | 1,033 | $1,210,000 | $1,171 | 26 | Sep 28 |
| 333 Beale Street, #6I | 1 | 1,114 | $1,205,000 | $1,082 | 15 | May 14 |
| 338 Main Street, #28D | 1 | 963 | $1,200,000 | $1,246 | 0 | Mar 04 |
| 333 Beale Street, #8I | 1 | 988 | $1,185,000 | $1,199 | 10 | May 11 |
| 318 Main Street, #8C | 1 | 883 | $1,125,000 | $1,274 | 129 | Jul 31 |
| 318 Main ST , #5D | 1 | 1,104 | $1,088,000 | $986 | 53 | Jun 11 |
| 201 Folsom Street, #14H | 1 | 851 | $1,010,000 | $1,187 | 7 | Apr 27 |
| 338 Main Street, #8H | 1 | 854 | $935,000 | $1,095 | 30 | Jun 29 |
| 333 Beale Street, #4F | 1 | 920 | $850,000 | $924 | 60 | May 25 |
| 333 Beale Street #7F | 1 | 920 | $800,000 | $870 | — | Apr 08 |
Paired resales
Units that closed in 2026 and had a prior recorded sale in the same building. The change is gross, before any improvements, fees or carrying costs.
| Unit | Prior sale | Prior price | 2026 sale | 2026 price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 338 Main Street, #25C | Dec 2015 | $3,300,000 | Apr 2026 | $2,725,000 | -17.4% |
| 318 Main Street, #8C | Apr 2018 | $1,335,000 | Jul 2026 | $1,125,000 | -15.7% |
| 333 Beale Street, #6I | Oct 2015 | $1,425,000 | May 2026 | $1,205,000 | -15.4% |
| 333 Beale Street, #8I | Mar 2020 | $1,350,000 | May 2026 | $1,185,000 | -12.2% |
| 338 Main Street, #8H | Dec 2015 | $1,049,000 | Jun 2026 | $935,000 | -10.9% |
| 338 Main Street, #16A | May 2020 | $2,050,000 | Apr 2026 | $1,870,000 | -8.8% |
| 318 Main ST , #5D | Aug 2015 | $1,168,000 | Jun 2026 | $1,088,000 | -6.8% |
| 338 Main Street, #26B | Dec 2015 | $7,500,000 | Jul 2026 | $7,000,000 | -6.7% |
| 333 Beale Street #7D | Oct 2015 | $1,275,000 | Sep 2026 | $1,210,000 | -5.1% |
| 338 Main Street, #5A | Jul 2019 | $1,785,000 | Aug 2026 | $1,700,000 | -4.8% |
| 338 Main Street, #32B | Dec 2015 | $6,895,000 | Oct 2026 | $7,000,000 | +1.5% |
| 201 Folsom Street, #21B | Jun 2016 | $1,745,100 | May 2026 | $1,780,000 | +2.0% |
| 338 Main Street, #3G | Jan 2022 | $1,985,000 | Jul 2026 | $2,025,000 | +2.0% |
| 201 Folsom Street, #24A | Jun 2016 | $2,053,500 | Aug 2026 | $2,218,000 | +8.0% |
| 318 Main Street, #4F | Aug 2015 | $2,431,000 | May 2026 | $2,650,000 | +9.0% |
| 201 Folsom Street, #27E | Jun 2016 | $2,100,000 | Jul 2026 | $2,295,000 | +9.3% |
| 201 Folsom Street #4F | Apr 2021 | $1,500,000 | Sep 2026 | $1,650,000 | +10.0% |
| 201 Folsom Street, #8C | Feb 2020 | $1,680,000 | Jul 2026 | $1,850,000 | +10.1% |
| 338 Main Street, #8E | Dec 2015 | $1,495,000 | Jul 2026 | $1,656,500 | +10.8% |
| 201 Folsom Street, #3G | Jun 2016 | $1,680,000 | Jul 2026 | $1,968,000 | +17.1% |
| 338 Main Street, #18B | Dec 2015 | $1,570,000 | May 2026 | $1,900,000 | +21.0% |
| 338 Main Street, #4E | Dec 2015 | $1,425,000 | Jun 2026 | $1,730,000 | +21.4% |
12 of these resold above the prior price, 10 below.
The block Lumina sits on
Lumina occupies the full block between Folsom, Main and Beale. Four blocks north-west, Anthropic has assembled roughly a million square feet along Howard Street — 300 Howard (the entire building, about 420,000 square feet, its future headquarters), 342, 400, 405 and 500 Howard (The Real Deal; SF Standard). Perplexity's 81,000 square feet is at 181 Fremont, two blocks west (SF Standard). CBRE recorded SoMa asking rents at $82.57 a foot in Q3 2026, up 31.7 percent in a year, and the submarket led the city with a 5.3-point vacancy drop in the quarter (SF Examiner).
The timetable that every South of Market building now sits inside is the public-offering calendar. Anthropic filed a confidential draft registration with the SEC on June 1, 2026, a week after a funding round that set its valuation at $965 billion (TechCrunch). As of this week the Standard reports the Anthropic listing has been pushed to November, after the midterms, that OpenAI's has moved to 2027, and that Anthropic is weighing a lockup longer than the usual six months (SF Standard). The same piece carries a Redfin estimate that current and former OpenAI and Anthropic employees could in theory buy close to a third of the metro area's homes with their proceeds, and the counter-argument from UC Berkeley's Enrico Moretti and the Bay Area Council's Jeff Bellisario that the money is concentrated in fewer hands than past booms and that these firms create fewer jobs per dollar because so much goes to data centers rather than headcount. The record in this report ends on October 15. None of it reflects a single share that has been sold.
Two citywide facts frame every building figure here. First, the office recovery is lopsided: CBRE put Q3 2026 vacancy at 27.7 percent citywide, down 6.6 points in a year, but Avison Young splits that into roughly 12 percent for Class A and north of 31 percent for Class B, and a Presidio Bay executive told Bisnow the headline number is misleading for that reason (Bisnow). Second, the condo market is still digging out: the Chronicle's May analysis found that only eight Bay Area ZIP codes showed inflation-adjusted condo gains over the year, all of them in San Francisco, and that Noe Valley's typical condo remained close to $400,000 below its 2019 level in real terms (SF Chronicle).
How this was counted
Two records feed this review. The MLS layer is one row per listing and carries days on market and square footage. The county layer reaches back further and catches transfers that never listed, but records the same closing once per data source, so the two were merged on unit, date and price and each closing kept once. Below-market-rate units and transfers under $300,000 are listed but excluded from every median. "Same window" means January 1 to October 15 of each year. Nothing here is a valuation of any unit, and nothing here is advice.
Tim McMullen · CA DRE #02016832
[email protected] · (415) 691-9272
- https://therealdeal.com/san-francisco/2026/04/07/anthropic-signs-another-san-francisco-office-lease/
- https://sfstandard.com/2026/04/07/i-leaderboard-san-francisco-office/
- https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/the-city/sfs-high-office-vacancy-rate-drops-again-as-ai-fueled-recovery-shows-legs/article_14d60cc1-a6dc-4228-9a44-b5b8c4d36b8c.html
- https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/01/anthropic-files-to-go-public/
- https://sfstandard.com/pacific-standard-time/2026/10/14/pst-anthropic-openai-ipos-sf-wealth/
- https://www.bisnow.com/news/san-francisco/office/ai-surge-driving-sf-office-market-leasing-to-strong-totals-in-decades
- https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/bay-area-condo-values-still-120000717.html
- Lumina · 201 Folsom St · South Beach
Tim McMullen, CA DRE #02016832. Real estate services provided by Tim McMullen, Broker, CA DRE #02016832. Figures are from recorded sales; nothing here is an opinion of the value of any home.