One Rincon Hill: a 2007 buyer on the 59th floor sold this year for 51 percent more. A 2022 buyer on the 12th sold for 13 percent less

One Rincon Hill's 2026 record is a study in purchase year. Ten units that closed this year had a prior sale on record at 425 1st Street, and the order of the table is almost the order of the calendar. #5901, bought in October 2007 from the developer for $2,125,000, sold on June 3 for $3,200,000, up 50.6 percent. #2003, bought in August 2012 for $1,125,000, sold for $1,739,000, up 54.6 percent. #4402, bought in 2016 for $2,200,000, sold on August 28 for $2,800,000 after nine days on market, up 27.3 percent and at $2,139 a foot — the highest per-foot figure in the building this year. At the other end, #1207, bought in May 2022 for $1,088,000, sold in January for $950,000, down 12.7 percent, and #3604, a 605-square-foot one-bedroom bought in 2018 for $850,000, sold for $775,000.

Fourteen closings through October 15, against 15 in the same window last year, on $19.4 million against $18.8 million. Price per square foot is the clean read: $1,292 year to date against $1,158, up 12 percent in a year and 19 percent under the tower's 2016 high of $1,595. Median days on market fell from 55 to 22, and five of 13 listed sales went into contract inside two weeks, against none of 14 last year.

The mix leaned small: nine of 14 sales were one-bedrooms, which is why the median sale price, $1,117,000, sits under last year's $1,149,000 while the per-foot figure moved. One-bedrooms went from $1,099 to $1,282 a foot; two-bedrooms from $1,190 to $1,361.

2026 so far, against the same window in 2025

Closings at One Rincon Hill between January 1 and October 15, 2026, set against January 1 to October 15, 2025. Days on market is median days from listing to contract on MLS-listed sales; "under 15 days" counts how many of those went into contract inside two weeks.

Year by year

Every recorded closing at One Rincon Hill since October 2007, by calendar year. 2026 runs through October 15, 2026. Days on market is available for MLS-listed sales from 2020 onward.

The building's highest median price per square foot in any year with five or more closings was $1,595 in 2016 (9 closings). 2026 year to date stands at $1,292.

By bedroom count, 2025 against 2026

Every closing in 2026

All 14 closings through October 15, 2026, highest price first. Square footage and days on market are as recorded on the MLS; county-recorded transfers that never listed show no days.

Paired resales

Units that closed in 2026 and had a prior recorded sale in the same building. The change is gross, before any improvements, fees or carrying costs.

8 of these resold above the prior price, 2 below.

The top of Rincon Hill

One Rincon Hill stands at the foot of the Bay Bridge at First and Harrison. Anthropic's Howard Street buildings are four blocks north (The Real Deal), Perplexity's 181 Fremont three blocks north-west (SF Standard). The Brannan Street corridor to the south took three of Q3 2026's six 100,000-square-foot-plus leases: Brex at 270 Brannan, Cognition's 182,000-square-foot sublease at 333 Brannan and Airbnb at 850 Brannan (SF Examiner). Citywide, AI companies leased 2.9 million square feet in the first half of the year, more than in any prior full year (The Registry).

The timetable that every South of Market building now sits inside is the public-offering calendar. Anthropic filed a confidential draft registration with the SEC on June 1, 2026, a week after a funding round that set its valuation at $965 billion (TechCrunch). As of this week the Standard reports the Anthropic listing has been pushed to November, after the midterms, that OpenAI's has moved to 2027, and that Anthropic is weighing a lockup longer than the usual six months (SF Standard). The same piece carries a Redfin estimate that current and former OpenAI and Anthropic employees could in theory buy close to a third of the metro area's homes with their proceeds, and the counter-argument from UC Berkeley's Enrico Moretti and the Bay Area Council's Jeff Bellisario that the money is concentrated in fewer hands than past booms and that these firms create fewer jobs per dollar because so much goes to data centers rather than headcount. The record in this report ends on October 15. None of it reflects a single share that has been sold.

Two citywide facts frame every building figure here. First, the office recovery is lopsided: CBRE put Q3 2026 vacancy at 27.7 percent citywide, down 6.6 points in a year, but Avison Young splits that into roughly 12 percent for Class A and north of 31 percent for Class B, and a Presidio Bay executive told Bisnow the headline number is misleading for that reason (Bisnow). Second, the condo market is still digging out: the Chronicle's May analysis found that only eight Bay Area ZIP codes showed inflation-adjusted condo gains over the year, all of them in San Francisco, and that Noe Valley's typical condo remained close to $400,000 below its 2019 level in real terms (SF Chronicle).

How this was counted

Two records feed this review. The MLS layer is one row per listing and carries days on market and square footage. The county layer reaches back further and catches transfers that never listed, but records the same closing once per data source, so the two were merged on unit, date and price and each closing kept once. Below-market-rate units and transfers under $300,000 are listed but excluded from every median. "Same window" means January 1 to October 15 of each year. Nothing here is a valuation of any unit, and nothing here is advice.

Tim McMullen · CA DRE #02016832
[email protected] · (415) 691-9272