The Rowan at 338 Potrero: two closings this year at $949 a foot, 28 percent under its 2017 sellout, with the SFMTA's Potrero Yard rebuild approved a block away

The Rowan is a ten-year-old building that sells at a discount to its opening. Two condominiums closed at 338 Potrero Avenue between January 1 and October 15, 2026, against none in the same window of 2025 and two for all of last year; $1,464,000 of volume. The median sale is $732,000 and the median price per square foot is $949, against $987 last year and $1,318 in 2017, the building's high, when the developer closed 26 units; this year sits 28 percent under that figure, and the building's resale years since 2021 have run between $798 and $1,229.

#508, an 873-square-foot two-bedroom, closed at $840,000 on April 10 after 21 days; it was bought in May 2021 for $950,000, so its owner sold 11.6 percent below the purchase price, and it is the year's one paired resale. #410, a 667-square-foot one-bedroom, closed at $624,000 on July 9 after 20 days. Neither went inside two weeks. Three transfers under $300,000 are left out of every median.

Trumark Urban broke ground in June 2015 with Glenn Rescalvo of Handel Architects, as part of a $100 million program with The Knox in Dogpatch and with Ross Perot Jr. as investor: 70 units on nine floors with a rooftop terrace, a courtyard with grills and a fire pit, and dues of about $572 to $777 a month (Bisnow; SF Highrises; listing, #808).

2026 so far, against the same window in 2025

Closings at The Rowan between January 1 and October 15, 2026, set against January 1 to October 15, 2025. Days on market is median days from listing to contract on MLS-listed sales; "under 15 days" counts how many of those went into contract inside two weeks.

Year by year

Every recorded closing at The Rowan since December 2016, by calendar year. 2026 runs through October 15, 2026. Days on market is available for MLS-listed sales from 2020 onward.

The building's highest median price per square foot in any year with five or more closings was $1,318 in 2017 (26 closings). 2026 year to date stands at $949.

By bedroom count, 2025 against 2026

Every closing in 2026

All 2 closings through October 15, 2026, highest price first. Square footage and days on market are as recorded on the MLS; county-recorded transfers that never listed show no days.

Paired resales

Units that closed in 2026 and had a prior recorded sale in the same building. The change is gross, before any improvements, fees or carrying costs.

0 of these resold above the prior price, 1 below.

Potrero Avenue at 16th, the Mission's eastern edge

The building stands on Potrero Avenue where the Mission meets Potrero Hill, visible from the 101, across 16th Street from the Potrero Center, the 227,000-square-foot shopping center with the Safeway, 24 Hour Fitness and Petco (SF Highrises; Regency Centers). One block southwest, the SFMTA's Potrero Yard, the bus facility on the block bounded by Mariposa, Bryant, 17th and Hampshire, is being rebuilt as a four-story bus yard with about 100 affordable apartments on top: the Board of Supervisors approved it on March 24, 2026, demolition begins in early 2027 and construction runs to 2030 (SFMTA). At 2401 16th, an office-to-residential conversion filed in 2021 added a plan in July 2026 to turn a vacant ground-floor restaurant into two homes (SF YIMBY).

The nearest large AI lease is Thinking Machines Lab's full building at 2300 Harrison, about half a mile southwest; Scale AI's 650 Townsend and OpenAI's 1800 Owens are about a mile away in the other directions (SF Standard; Bisnow).

The timetable that every South of Market building now sits inside is the public-offering calendar. Anthropic filed a confidential draft registration with the SEC on June 1, 2026, a week after a funding round that set its valuation at $965 billion (TechCrunch). As of this week the Standard reports the Anthropic listing has been pushed to November, after the midterms, that OpenAI's has moved to 2027, and that Anthropic is weighing a lockup longer than the usual six months (SF Standard). The same piece carries a Redfin estimate that current and former OpenAI and Anthropic employees could in theory buy close to a third of the metro area's homes with their proceeds, and the counter-argument from UC Berkeley's Enrico Moretti and the Bay Area Council's Jeff Bellisario that the money is concentrated in fewer hands than past booms and that these firms create fewer jobs per dollar because so much goes to data centers rather than headcount. The record in this report ends on October 15. None of it reflects a single share that has been sold.

Two citywide facts frame every building figure here. First, the office recovery is lopsided: CBRE put Q3 2026 vacancy at 27.7 percent citywide, down 6.6 points in a year, but Avison Young splits that into roughly 12 percent for Class A and north of 31 percent for Class B, and a Presidio Bay executive told Bisnow the headline number is misleading for that reason (Bisnow). Second, the condo market is still digging out: the Chronicle's May analysis found that only eight Bay Area ZIP codes showed inflation-adjusted condo gains over the year, all of them in San Francisco, and that Noe Valley's typical condo remained close to $400,000 below its 2019 level in real terms (SF Chronicle).

How this was counted

Two records feed this review. The MLS layer is one row per listing and carries days on market and square footage. The county layer reaches back further and catches transfers that never listed, but records the same closing once per data source, so the two were merged on unit, date and price and each closing kept once. Below-market-rate units and transfers under $300,000 are listed but excluded from every median. "Same window" means January 1 to October 15 of each year. Nothing here is a valuation of any unit, and nothing here is advice.

Tim McMullen · CA DRE #02016832
[email protected] · (415) 691-9272